THE NEXT FIFTY YEARS OF U.S. – E.U. RELATIONS, AND THE NEXT FIVE
Ernest J. WilsonIII *
From the point of view of an American of a certain age (graying baby boomer), there is both good new and bad news as he looks to Europe’s celebration of50 years of the European Union. The first and most important positive condition is that the continent has known 50 years of peace and stability, no small achievement given even the previous 50 years that saw two world wars. Peace and stability has been very good for Europe, good for America and good for the world.
Second, over most of that time the political relations between the United States of America, and the states of Europe that are uniting, have on the whole been very positive. There have been ups and downs, but no sustained bitterness, trade wars or broken diplomatic relations.
Third, the economies of the two regions have become much more entangled and interconnected, so America’s economic health is more closely tied to the economic health of Europe.
Fourth, and more to the moment, the leading announced candidates for American presidency are, for the most part, internationalists. The Republican front runner Rudy Giuliani has roots in the old country, and having been mayor of one of the most multicultural and international of cities in the U.S. (New York), he is unlikely to lead the country in the foolish and dangerous directions of the past 2 election cycles. Senator John McCain is less predictable on his foreign policy priorities (e.g. his odd support for a troop surge in Iraq), but is unlikely to take an anti-internationalist position as president (though he may have to hit out at free trade along the way if he is to gain his party’s nomination).On the Democratic side of political house, Obama, Edwards and Clinton are internationalists by nature and can be expected to have a sensible policy toward Europe.
But there is bad news too. In spite of the United States’ growing reliance on imports and exports, on borrowed money and ‘borrowed’ labor (immigration), and its involvement in a losing war, the run- up to the election is marked by a media and populace that seems to turn out most international issues other than the Iraq war. Including the 50th anniversary of the Treaty of Rome. To its credit as the major newspaper of record, the New York Times devoted the first front page column of its news review section this past Sunday to the anniversary, providing a nuanced analysis ofpast trends, future directions and current conditions of Europe. But unfortunately that is the exception to the rule which has seen only limited attention to trends in Europe.We just don’t know whether this myopia is just a short term reaction or a longer term trend likely to complicate U.S – E.U. relation. Probably a bit ofboth.
It will take a lot of high level leadership by the next administration to keep the dialogue open, and probably some clever and effective use of ‘soft power’ by Europeans to better inform the U.S. citizenry of the benefits of the trans-Atlantic alliance. One would be hard pressed to find such a campaign today.
In the very short term – the next 18 months – we will certainly see less ‘cowboy’ behavior by the president since he now has to contend with a congress controlled not by his co-opted Republicans but by Democrats eager to correct the sloppy legislative oversight of foreign policy of the past 6 years and who want to score a lot of political points leading up to the presidential elections.
The US – EU relationship has withstood other challenges in the past, and will no doubt survive the latest. But repairing the relationship will certainly take a lot of hard work from both sides. It remains to be seen whether the electorate will give the leaders the latitude they need to try to smooth over the deep cracks that have come to separate Europe and the United States. Getting to the next 50 years will be easy. Getting through the next 5 will be more difficult.
*Ernest J. Wilson III is currently a Visiting Professor of Public Diplomacy at the Annenberg School (USC), and a Fellow at the Annenberg Center.From 1995 to 2002, he was the Director of the Center for International Development and Conflict Management (CIDCM) at the University of Maryland, College Park. He is Senior Advisor to the Global Infrastructure Information Commission, and Co-Director of the International Center for e-Leadership.
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